WTIO31 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 15.7N 54.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 54.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.7N 54.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.8N 53.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.4N 53.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.8N 52.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 54.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA, INCLUDING 250315Z SSMIS 37 GHZ AND 250526Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGES, AS WELL AS A 250600Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF RECENT AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 02A CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN OMAN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST FOLLOWING A REASSESSMENT OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA, INCLUDING THE IMAGERY CITED ABOVE. THE CENTER OF TC 02A IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR SALALAH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OVER LAND BY TAU 48. A SUPPORTIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER SHOULD ALLOW TC 02A TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL, DESPITE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND TERRAIN TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//