WTIO31 PGTW 251500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 54.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 54.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 17.4N 53.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 18.3N 53.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 18.8N 52.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 19.1N 51.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 54.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250941Z AMSR-2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH A 15-NM EYE. BASED ON THE RECENT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS). TC 02A IS APPROACHING THE OMAN COAST THUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SALALAH ARE INDICATING INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 34 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS AS OF 25/1250Z. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR 25/18Z AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND, TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AS A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//