WTIO31 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 53.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 53.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.5N 53.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.2N 52.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 18.6N 52.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 53.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 27 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251715Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH A 7-NM EYE. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE CLEARLY VISIBLE EYE IN BOTH INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AGAIN ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS), SLIGHTLY BELOW A 251428Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 110 KTS. TC 02A IS NOW LESS THAN 30NM FROM THE OMANI COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SALALAH ARE INDICATING INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRANSITIONING TO EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 45 KT RANGE FOR SUSTAINED WINDS, GUSTING UP TO 55-60 KTS. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR 26/00Z AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND. IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN A NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE DRY, MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//