WTPZ45 KNHC 040845 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102018

200 AM PDT SAT AUG 04 2018



HECTOR HAS MAINTAINED AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SO FAR

THIS MORNING.  THE CLEAR EYE OF THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS SURROUNDED BY

A RING OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -75 DEG C AND ITS OUTFLOW HAS

BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM TAFB, SAB, AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT

AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT.



THE HURRICANE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48

TO 72 H, SO THE NHC FORECAST KEEPS HECTOR AS A FAIRLY STEADY-STATE

MAJOR HURRICANE, CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL. IN REALITY, WHILE RECENT

SSMIS AND AMSU MICROWAVE DATA DO NOT SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER EYEWALL

REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS IMMINENT, IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ONE DID

OCCUR SOMETIME IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO AT

LEAST BRIEFLY WEAKEN.  HECTOR'S SMALL SIZE COULD ALSO MAKE IT

PARTICULARLY PRONE TO SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY, UP OR

DOWN, LIKE THE ONE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. BY DAY 4, HECTOR IS FORECAST

TO MOVE OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER SSTS, AND INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT, SO

GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE

FORECAST IS FAIRLY LOW SINCE THERE LARGE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY

GUIDANCE.



HECTOR HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE STEADILY WESTWARD, AND THE INITIAL

MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10 KT.  A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE

NORTH SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE

ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH

LATITUDE HECTOR WILL GAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 DAY TIME FRAME DUE TO A