WTPZ43 KNHC 080859 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132018

200 AM PDT WED AUG 08 2018



SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KRISTY IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED, WITH A

DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.

IN ADDITION THE CENTER IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF

DEEP CONVECTION. AN ARTIFACT OF CONTINUED SHEAR.  A SCATTEROMETER

PASS REVEALED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 35 KT, WHICH IS A FAIR BIT

BELOW THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT A

POSSIBLY GENEROUS 40 KT SINCE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST

FEW HOURS.



SHEAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KRISTY IS

FORECAST IS RELAX IN A DAY OR SO, AND BY THAT TIME THE CYCLONE WILL

PROBABLY HAVE MIXED THE CURRENT DRY AIR INTRUSION.  THUS SOME

RESTRENGTHENING IS SHOWN COMMENCING BEYOND 24 HOURS.  THERE IS

ONLY A NARROW WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, SINCE BETWEEN

48-72 HOURS THE SSTS SHOULD BECOME RATHER MARGINAL WITH A POSSIBLE

INCREASE IN A SHEAR. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN MARKEDLY FROM THE

LAST CYCLE, WITH MOST OF THE MODELS SURPRISINGLY SHOWING NO INCREASE

IN STRENGTH.  THIS FORECAST WILL LOWER THE WINDS ABOUT 10 KT FROM

THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING DAYS 1-4, BUT IS STILL ABOUT 10 KT ABOVE THE

CONSENSUS AT THOSE TIME FRAMES SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT DOESN'T APPEAR

TO BE THAT HOSTILE.



NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/7 KT.

KRISTY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHWARD

LATE THURSDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE IS ERODED AWAY TO THE NORTH OF THE

CYCLONE.  WHILE SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN IS