WTPZ43 KNHC 090240 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132018

800 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2018



DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KRISTY HAS INCREASED NEAR AND TO THE

EAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER, MICROWAVE

IMAGES STILL SHOW THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT SYMMETRIC DUE

TO WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE

NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES

RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AGAIN HELD AT 40

KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



KRISTY WILL LIKELY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE

NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW

AND REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS, HOWEVER,

KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26 DEGREE C ISOTHERM. THESE COOLER

WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD

END THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING AND RESULT IN A GRADUAL

WEAKENING TREND.  THE INTENSITY MODELS REMAIN QUITE DIVERGENT, WITH

THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING WHILE

THE HWRF MODEL PREDICTS KRISTY TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY.  THE

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND IS IN BEST

AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS FORECAST SHOWS

KRISTY BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 4 WHEN THE SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO BE OVER 23 DEGREE C SSTS.



THE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD, WITH THE LATEST INITIAL

MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 315/6 KT.  A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON

THURSDAY AS KRISTY GETS DRAWN TOWARD THE LARGER AND STRONGER