WTPZ43 KNHC 090844 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132018

200 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2018



DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH AND

EAST OF KRISTY'S CENTER, AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED SOME IN ALL

QUADRANTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF

40 KT AT 0600 UTC, BUT THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION, ALONG WITH

A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND AND A UW-CIMSS ADT

ESTIMATE OF T2.9/43 KT, JUSTIFY INCREASING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO

45 KT.



KRISTY HAS TURNED TO NORTH-NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING 345/05 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATER TODAY,

FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IN THE

24-48 H TIME PERIOD AS KRISTY AND MUCH LARGER TROPICAL STORM JOHN

UNDERGO SOME WEAK BINARY INTERACTION. HOWEVER, THE TWO CYCLONES

SEPARATE BY 72 H AS JOHN WEAKENS OVER COLD WATERS AND ITS INFLUENCE

ON KRISTY DIMINISHES, RESULTING IN A TURN TO THE NORTH. BY 96 H AND

BEYOND, KRISTY WILL ALSO BE LOCATED OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND IS

EXPECTED TO HAVE DEGENERATED INTO A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW PRESSURE,

BECOMING STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY TRADE

WIND FLOW. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE GLOBAL

AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS, WITH THE GFS, HWRF, AND HMON MODELS

KEEPING KRISTY MOVING NORTHWARD AFTER 72 H, AND THE ECMWF AND UKMET

MODELS MOVING KRISTY WESTWARD. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED

MARKEDLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, AND THE NEW

OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION.

HOWEVER, THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WAS NOT SHIFTED AS FAR EAST AS THE