WTPZ43 KNHC 101439 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132018

800 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018



KRISTY APPEARS TO HAVE AT LEAST MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH OVER THE

PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A PARTIAL HIT FROM THE AMSR INSTRUMENT AT 0950

UTC INDICATED A CLOSED OR NEARLY-CLOSED MID-LEVEL EYE WAS PRESENT,

AND THIS FEATURE WAS STILL APPARENT IN SSMI IMAGERY A FEW HOURS

LATER. CONVECTION NEAR KRISTY'S CENTER HAS ALSO RECOVERED AFTER A

BRIEF DECREASE EARLIER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE

LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM THE

UW-CIMSS ADT AND SATCON ARE AROUND 50 KT, WHILE THE LATEST

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF

77 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 60 KT AS A COMPROMISE

BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES, BUT THIS ESTIMATE IS PERHAPS MORE

UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.



IN THE SHORT TERM, KRISTY STILL HAS A BRIEF PERIOD TO MAINTAIN ITS

INTENSITY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND IT REMAINS

OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS AROUND 26C. IN FACT, I CAN'T RULE OUT THAT

KRISTY COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. BEGINNING

TOMORROW, THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS, AND STEADY

WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD

AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION FOR 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. BY EARLY NEXT

WEEK, THE TROPICAL STORM WILL LIKELY LOSE ALL CONVECTION AND BECOME

A REMNANT LOW, WHILE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER SUB-24C

WATERS.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/8 KT. KRISTY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING

GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, TOWARDS A WEAKNESS