WTPA42 PHFO 190910 TCDCP2 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 18 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 18 2018 Lane completely lost its eye in the last visible satellite imagery, which was available earlier this evening. In addition, microwave passes from SSMIS at 0339z and AMSU at 0644z indicated the eyewall appeared to be open on the southwestern side of the system. Vertical wind shear estimates are 18 knots from the west-southwest according to the latest SHIPS and UW-CIMSS. This is likely a major culprit in the weakening of Lane. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are T5.5/102 knots from SAB, T6.0/115 knots from JTWC and T6.5/127 knots from PHFO. The most recent ADT from UW-CIMSS is weaker at 5.7/107 knots. Based on a blend of this guidance, the latest initial intensity has been adjusted downward slightly to 110 kt for this advisory. Note that a warm spot appears to be developing in the infrared satellite imagery during the past couple of hours. Lane's initial motion for this advisory is 280/14 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the north will continue to keep Lane moving along this same general track, but at a slightly slower forward speed during the next two days. A shift back toward the west-northwest should occur from 96 through 120 hours as Lane approaches the western portion of the ridge. Track guidance shows some spread beyond 72 hours. The most recent forecast is very similar to the previous through 72 hours, with a shift to the right on days 4 and 5. These changes in track were based on nudging toward HWRF and HSSE, as well as the GFEX and TVCN consensus. The intensity forecast closely follows ICON consensus guidance, depicting a gradual weakening through 120 hours. SSTs will remain in the 27 to 28 degrees C range, but with 10 to 15 knots of vertical wind shear expected through the forecast period, a forecast for gradual weakening seems realistic at this time. The latest intensity forecast is close to the previous, except that Lane is kept slightly stronger on days 4 and 5. Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it tracks west northwestward. Interests in those islands should watch the progress of Lane closely, since long-range forecast track and intensity errors can be large. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 12.9N 142.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 13.2N 143.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 13.5N 146.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 13.7N 147.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 13.9N 149.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 14.3N 153.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 15.2N 156.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 17.0N 160.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Houston