WTPA42 PHFO 190910 RRA

TCDCP2



HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142018

1100 PM HST SAT AUG 18 2018



LANE COMPLETELY LOST ITS EYE IN THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY,

WHICH WAS AVAILABLE EARLIER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, MICROWAVE

PASSES FROM SSMIS AT 0339Z AND AMSU AT 0644Z INDICATED THE EYEWALL

APPEARED TO BE OPEN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR ESTIMATES ARE 18 KNOTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ACCORDING

TO THE LATEST SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS. THIS IS LIKELY A MAJOR CULPRIT IN

THE WEAKENING OF LANE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES ARE T5.5/102 KNOTS FROM SAB, T6.0/115 KNOTS FROM JTWC AND

T6.5/127 KNOTS FROM PHFO. THE MOST RECENT ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS

WEAKER AT 5.7/107 KNOTS. BASED ON A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE, THE

LATEST INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO 110

KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOTE THAT A WARM SPOT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING

IN THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.



LANE'S INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 280/14 KT. A LARGE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LANE MOVING

ALONG THIS SAME GENERAL TRACK, BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD

SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR FROM 96 THROUGH 120 HOURS AS LANE

APPROACHES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS

SOME SPREAD BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST IS VERY

SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS THROUGH 72 HOURS, WITH A SHIFT TO THE RIGHT

ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THESE CHANGES IN TRACK WERE BASED ON NUDGING TOWARD

HWRF AND HSSE, AS WELL AS THE GFEX AND TVCN CONSENSUS.