WTPA42 PHFO 200913 RRA

TCDCP2



HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142018

1100 PM HST SUN AUG 19 2018



AIRCRAFT FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT OPERATION CENTER AND THE U.S. AIR

FORCE RESERVES 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON HAVE BEEN

SAMPLING HURRICANE LANE THIS EVENING. THE DATA PROVIDED BY THESE

MISSIONS HAVE BEEN INVALUABLE. BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 87 TO 102 KNOTS AND LANE'S POOR

REPRESENTATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, WE MIGHT HAVE CONSIDERED

WEAKENING THE HURRICANE. INSTEAD, THE AIRCRAFT FOUND PEAK

FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 113 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST

QUADRANT. IN ADDITION, A DROPSONDE ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF 117

KNOTS WAS ALSO FOUND IN THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL. BASED ON THESE

AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS, WE HAVE INCREASED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO

110 KNOTS.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 275/12 KNOTS. LANE CONTINUES

TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN TRACK GUIDANCE BEYOND

DAY 2 AS INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLE THE EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION

OF THIS RIDGE DIFFERENTLY, DUE TO THE FORECAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH DIGGING DOWN NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER

THIS WEEK. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS IS CLOSE TO

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, DUE TO OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE THAT

THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE WILL ERODE FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5, WE

HAD TO SHIFT THE TRACK FAR TO THE RIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK

REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ECMWF, WHICH IS FAR LEFT OF THE GFS,

HWRF, AND CONSENSUS MODELS.



THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY COMPARED