WTPA42 PHFO 201510 RRA

TCDCP2



HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142018

500 AM HST MON AUG 20 2018



AIRCRAFT FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT OPERATION CENTER AND THE U.S. AIR

FORCE RESERVES 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON DEPARTED

HURRICANE LANE LATE SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME, WE ARE RELYING

ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO TRACK LANE'S PROGRESS. A WARM SPOT, WHICH

APPEARS TO BE INDICATIVE OF AN EYE, APPEARED IN THE INFRARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY SEVERAL HOURS AGO. RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SENT

FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT BETWEEN 0510Z AND 0722Z SHOWED THAT LANE'S

EYEWALL WAS OPEN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. MORE RECENTLY, A

1237Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE APPEARS TO SHOW THAT THE EYEWALL HAS NOW

BECOME DISTINCT IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALL OF THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES

(PHFO, SAB, AND JTWC) BASED THEIR SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT

INTENSITY ESTIMATES ON AN .EYE PATTERN.. THESE ESTIMATES RANGED

FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE APPEARS TO BE

AN UNREALISTICALLY LOW 77 KNOTS. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS

WERE MUCH STRONGER EARLIER TONIGHT AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF

THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE INITIAL

INTENSITY AT 110 KNOTS.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 275/12 KNOTS. LANE CONTINUES

TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE

BEYOND DAY 2 DUE TO THE VARIATIONS IN THE WAY THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS

HANDLE THE EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AS AN

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS

IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS IS