WTPA42 PHFO 210857 RRA

TCDCP2



HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142018

1100 PM HST MON AUG 20 2018





LANE HAS QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE THIS EVENING, WITH

A SOLID RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A WARMING EYE.

AIRCRAFT FROM NOAA AND THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON

HAVE BEEN FLYING THROUGH LANE AT 8 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY

THIS EVENING, AND ARE CONFIRMING THAT LANE IS A POWERFUL HURRICANE

THAT HAS INTENSIFIED SINCE THEIR LAST VISIT THIS MORNING. THE

CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED ROUGHLY 10 MB, PEAK SFMR WINDS WERE 140

KT WITH MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NEAR 128 KT, AND AN EYEWALL

DROPSONDE RECORDED WINDS NEAR 139 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE

AIRCRAFT DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS INCREASED

TO 130 KT, MAINTAINING LANE AS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 280/10 KT, WITH LANE

CONTINUING TO BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE

NORTH. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, LANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE

WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO GAIN

LATITUDE. SOME INCREASE IN THE CLUSTERING OF THE TRACK MODEL

GUIDANCE HAS OCCURRED THIS CYCLE, WITH THE ECMWF NO LONGER ON THE

LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. ALL OF THE RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE

NOW INDICATES THAT LANE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE

WEST-NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY, WITH A GRADUAL SLOWING IN FORWARD

SPEED. A MORE DECIDED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED

THURSDAY, WITH RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING LANE NOW FORECAST TO MOVE

DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A TURN TOWARD THE