WTPA42 PHFO 220304 RRA

TCDCP2



HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142018

500 PM HST TUE AUG 21 2018



LANE REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WELL-

DEVELOPED WARM EYE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY PERSISTENT COLD CLOUD

TOPS. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FROM THE 53RD WEATHER

RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH LANE DURING THE DAY,

AND HAS PROVIDED INVALUABLE DATA. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED

AROUND 10 MB BETWEEN THE 18Z AND 00Z FIXES, WITH THE LAST EYE

DROPSONDE MEASURING 930 MB WITH 16 KT SPLASH WIND, YIELDING A

MINIMUM PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 929 MB. PEAK SFMR WINDS DURING THIS

MISSION WERE 140 KT, AND MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 146 KT.

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 6.5/127 KT

TO 7.0/140 KT, WITH THE LATEST ADT CURRENT INTENSITY HOLDING STEADY

AT 6.5/127 KT. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED SHARPLY

DURING THE LAST 18 HOURS, IT IS NOW ABOUT WHAT ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR

A HURRICANE OF STRONG CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC

BASIN, AND BASED PRIMARILY ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA THE INTIAL INTENSITY

IS HELD AT 135 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



LANE HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE WNW TODAY, AND THE INITIAL MOTION

FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 285/8 KT. LANE HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY

WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL

DAYS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE CHANGING SOON, AS LANE BEGINS TO ROUND

THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND MOVES INTO AN AREA OF

RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE

CYCLONE TO GAIN LATITUDE AS ITS FORWARD SPEED DIMINISHES. THE

HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT,