WTPA42 PHFO 220619 CCA

TCDCP2



Hurricane Lane Special Discussion Number  30

NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018

645 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018



Data from the NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate that Lane has strengthened

to a category 5 hurricane, and this special advisory represents an

update to the current intensity, and the forecast intensity through

the first 36 hours. No changes were made to the remainder of the

forecast.





KEY MESSAGES:



1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian

Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing

damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy

rainfall anywhere in the state. As Lane is expected to be

slow-moving as it nears the islands, it will produce large and

damaging surf.



2. As Lane moves up from the southeast, the earliest potential

threat to land will be for the Big Island, where a Hurricane Warning

is now in effect. Preparations there should be rushed to completion

as tropical-storm force winds are forecast to arrive in the warning

area by late Wednesday or early Thursday. A Hurricane Watch remains

in effect for Maui County, and is now posted for Oahu, with

tropical-storm force winds possibly beginning Thursday or Thursday

night.



3. Due to a continued high degree of uncertainty on the forecast

track and intensity of Lane, hurricane impacts could be felt across

any of the Hawaiian Islands. It is too early to predict which, if

any, of the islands are directly impacted. Remember that life

threatening weather conditions can extend well away from the center

of the hurricane.  Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely

monitor the progress of Lane during the next few days.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  22/0430Z 14.5N 154.0W  140 KT 160 MPH

 12H  22/1200Z 15.0N 155.0W  135 KT 155 MPH

 24H  23/0000Z 16.0N 156.0W  130 KT 150 MPH

 36H  23/1200Z 17.2N 156.8W  120 KT 140 MPH

 48H  24/0000Z 18.6N 157.3W  100 KT 115 MPH

 72H  25/0000Z 21.1N 158.7W   75 KT  85 MPH

 96H  26/0000Z 21.5N 161.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

120H  27/0000Z 21.0N 164.5W   40 KT  45 MPH



$$

Forecaster Birchard