WTPA42 PHFO 241518 RRA

TCDCP2



HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40...CORRECTED

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142018

500 AM HST FRI AUG 24 2018



HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES TO SIGNS OF SLOW WEAKENING DUE TO WIND

SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST

SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THERE IS NO EYE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE

IMAGERY, WHICH IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THESE HOSTILE CONDITIONS. RADAR

REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM THE WSR-88D RADARS AT MOLOKAI AND KOHALA SHOW

THE CENTER IS BECOMING DISRUPTED. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM HFO, JTWC, TAFB AND SAB WERE A UNANIMOUS T5.0/90

KNOTS, WHILE THE UW-CIMSS ADT WAS T5.4/100 KNOTS. BASED ON A BLEND

OF THESE ESTIMATES, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 95

KNOTS.



LANE BEGAN TO TURN NORTHWARD THURSDAY EVENING, AND THE CURRENT

MOTION IS 360/4 KNOTS. LANE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH

ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE

EAST OF HAWAII. THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWARD

MOTION, OR EVEN A MOTION TOWARD JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH, AS THE RIDGE

BUILDS SOUTH OF LANE. THE LATEST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS MORE CLOSELY

FOLLOWS THE LATEST CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT ON THIS

TRACK, HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL HAWAIIAN

ISLANDS, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT ANYONE IS SAFE IN THE

WARNING AREA. ASSUMING LANE BEGINS TO WEAKEN, AND DECOUPLE BEFORE,

OR AFTER, IT HITS THE ISLANDS, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO COME

INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND