WTPA42 PHFO 250323

TCDCP2



Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number  43...Corrected

NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018

500 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018



It took awhile...but once the 35 to 40 kt of shear began to

impact the core convection from Lane, the battle ended quickly. A

very helpful AMSR2 89 GHz microwave pass over Lane at 2259 UTC

showed the circulation center was now mainly comprised of low and

mid level clouds completely detached from the remaining pockets of

deep convection to the northeast of the center. Even a blend of the

Dvorak final-T and current intensity estimates appeared to be too

generous, based on the very rapid degradation of the cloud pattern

and the WSR-88D radar velocities. Settled on 60 kt for the current

intensity.



The new motion estimate is 315/3, but this is a bit uncertain

until we have more time to examine this change. The low level

circulation of Lane is expected to continue to weaken in the face of

continued strong shear, and driven on a westward track by the low

level flow. The track guidance is in better agreement than I've seen

it in awhile. If it survives long enough, the global models show

Lane may get a new lease on life as an extratropical low over the

Northwest Hawaiian Islands. In any case, we will be happy to get rid

of the tropical cyclone in our vicinity. Until then, people should

be mindful of additional impacts that can still occur until Lane

departs.





KEY MESSAGES:



1.  Rainbands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane can

still bring persistent, flooding rainfall and damaging winds.

Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the center.

Winds will be accelerated over higher terrain, through gaps, and

where winds blow downslope. Winds will also be stronger at the

upper floors of high rise buildings.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  25/0300Z 19.2N 158.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  25/1200Z 19.4N 158.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  26/0000Z 19.7N 159.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  26/1200Z 19.7N 160.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  27/0000Z 19.7N 161.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  28/0000Z 20.4N 164.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  29/0000Z 22.0N 166.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  30/0000Z 25.9N 167.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

Forecaster R Ballard