WTPA42 PHFO 251509 RRA

TCDCP2



TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142018

500 AM HST SAT AUG 25 2018



DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BURST OF

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF LANE, WHICH

WAS NEARLY TOTALLY EXPOSED FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN

PERSISTENT NEAR THE CORE OF THIS DEEP CONVECTION. MORE IMPORTANTLY,

WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE APPARENT CENTER OF CIRCULATION IN THE

RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA, WHICH HELPS OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE LATEST

LOCATION AND MOTION. LANE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, SO TAKING A BLEND OF

THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WE HAVE LOWERED THE

INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KNOTS.



THE LATEST MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 350/3 KNOTS. THE CURRENT

TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT THROUGH 36

HOURS, WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAYS 2 THROUGH 5. THIS FORECAST

CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HWRF, AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS

MODELS SUCH AS TVCN, GFEX AND HCCA. THERE ARE ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN

THE TRACK FORECAST COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FROM DAYS 2 THROUGH 5.

LANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF

GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS LANE

BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 4. ASSUMING THIS LOW SURVIVES, IT MAY

EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE

NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY DAY 5.



KEY MESSAGES:



1.  EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORMS CAN AND DO EXTEND WELL FROM THE

CENTER. RAIN BANDS AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF LANE

ARE STILL BRINGING PERSISTENT FLOODING RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE