WTPA42 PHFO 260245 RRA

TCDCP2



TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142018

500 PM HST SAT AUG 25 2018



THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF LANE IS EXPOSED IN VISIBLE

SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO PULSE

EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK FIXES AND

THE LATEST SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF LANE, WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE

INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KNOTS WITH THIS ADVISORY. WIND RADII WERE

DECREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS WHICH CAPTURED THE

EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.



STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT CONTINUES TO IMPACT LANE.

GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO

THIS STRONG SHEAR PERSISTING. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH ICON AND

SHIPS GUIDANCE. LANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT

36 HOURS AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. ASSUMING THIS LOW

SURVIVES, IT MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE LOW IN THE

VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AROUND DAYS 4 AND 5.



THE LATEST MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/8 KNOTS. A SLIGHT

INCREASE IN FORWARD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE

LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES SOUTH OF AN AREA OF

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF HAWAII. BY DAY 3, A TURN TO THE  NORTHWEST IS

EXPECTED THE THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE

CURRENT TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48 HOURS,

WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THIS FORECAST CLOSELY

FOLLOWS THE HWRF, AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  26/0300Z 19.5N 160.2W   45 KT  50 MPH