WTPA42 PHFO 271445 RRA

TCDCP2



TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142018

500 AM HST MON AUG 27 2018



LANE'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAD BEEN EXPOSED FOR THE BETTER

PART OF THE LAST 30 HOURS, AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT

CHARACTERIZED BY 40 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, A RECENT

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE BURST IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS AT LEAST

PARTIALLY OBSCURED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS

INCREASED TO THE SOUTHEAST. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES

TRENDED UP, BUT WERE STILL PRIMARILY 2.0/30 KT AT THE SYNOPTIC TIME,

WHILE UW-CIMSS SATCON WAS NEAR 35 KT. WITH THE IMPROVED SATELLITE

APPEARANCE SINCE THEN, AND SINCE AN ASCAT PASS DETECTED WINDS JUST

OVER 30 KT ON SUNDAY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS

INCREASED TO 35 KT, AND LANE IS ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL STORM.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/7 KT, WITH LANE BEING

DRIVEN WESTWARD BY A SURFACE HIGH TO THE DISTANT NORTHEAST. THIS

MOTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT-TERM, WITH LANE'S FORWARD MOTION

EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF

THE HIGH. AT THE SAME TIME, INCREASED INTERACTION WITH AN

AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A DEEPENING SHEAR

PROFILE, WITH THE STRONG SHEAR CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-LEVELS

SPREADING TO THE MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD BE MORE EFFECTIVE IN

INTERRUPTING LANE'S LOW-LEVEL CORE, AND LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY.



LANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TUESDAY INTO

WEDNESDAY AS IT GETS WRAPPED UP INTO THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED