WTPA42 PHFO 280853 RRA

TCDCP2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  56

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142018

1100 PM HST MON AUG 27 2018



THE LAST VISIBLE HIMAWARI IMAGES OF THE EVENING ALONG WITH MORE

RECENT GOES-15 FOG PRODUCT IMAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE EXPOSED LOW

LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF LANE TRACKING WESTWARD. INFRARED

IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY SMALL, SCATTERED AND SHORT-LIVED PUFFS OF DEEP

CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THESE ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED

FROM 50 NM NW TO OVER 100 NM NE AND E OF THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE

DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 2.0/30 KT FROM HFO AND

JTWC, AND 1.5/25 KT FROM SAB, WHILE FINAL T-NUMBERS WERE 1.0 TO 1.5

OR 25 KT ACROSS THE BOARD. THE LATEST CIMSS ADT IS ALSO 1.5/25 KT.

WE HAVE CONSERVATIVELY MAINTAINED LANE AS A 30 KT TROPICAL

DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.



INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 270/6 KT. A STRONG

LOWER/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LANE HAS STEERED THE CYCLONE

GENERALLY TOWARD THE WSW DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL

BE CHANGING SOON, AS LANE CONTINUES TO APPROACH A STRONG LOW ALOFT

WHICH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CENTERED NEAR 23N 172W. MODEL

GUIDANCE SHOWS LANE BEING PICKED UP BY A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH

INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH, WITH THE DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO TURN NW

THEN NNW DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR

TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.



UW-CIMSS DIAGNOSES ALMOST 60 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER LANE,

AS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE ANIMATIONS WHICH SHOW THE TOPS OF ANY