WTPZ44 KNHC 160851 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142018

200 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2018



THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT LANE IS GETTING BETTER

ORGANIZED WITH ITS CLOUD PATTERN NOW CONSISTING OF A CENTRAL DENSE

OVERCAST FEATURE AND CURVED BANDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES TONIGHT.

ALL OF THE DVORAK-BASED ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5/55 KT.

HOWEVER, AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0600 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ONLY

35 KT.  SINCE LANE IS A COMPACT SYSTEM, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE

RESOLUTION OF ASCAT IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO CAPTURE ITS MAXIMUM WINDS,

THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT AS A COMPROMISE OF

THESE DATA.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE

INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.



LANE IS NOW MOVING DUE WESTWARD AT 10 KT STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE

SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW A

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

CUTTING OFF AND MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS

FEATURE WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE A LITTLE, AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE LANE

TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST

LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  BASED ON THIS

FORECAST, LANE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN

THIS WEEKEND.



THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LANE TO

STRENGTHEN.  DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE WIND SHEAR NEAR LANE

IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 KT, HUMIDITY VALUES RELATIVELY HIGH,

AND SSTS SUFFICENTLY WARM.  THEREFORE, STEADY OR EVEN RAPID