WTPZ44 KNHC 170243 RRA

TCDEP4



HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142018

800 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2018



VISIBLE, INFRARED, AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT

LANE'S OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, WITH SEVERAL

SPIRAL BANDS AND A MORE SYMMETRICAL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAVING

DEVELOPED. ALTHOUGH THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS DETERIORATED

SOMEWHAT UNTIL JUST RECENTLY DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR,

MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE AND

LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS FORMED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT

0000 UTC RANGED FORM T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB TO 55 KT AND 59 KT

FROM UW-CIMSS ADT AND SATCON, RESPECTIVELY, WHICH SUPPORTED AN

INTENSITY OF 60 KT AT THAT TIME. SINCE THEN, HOWEVER, A NEARLY

CLOSED RING OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER,

SO THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT AT THE ADVISORY TIME.



LANES HAS MADE A SHARP JOG TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST

6 HOURS, BUT THIS BELIEVED TO BE A SHORT-TERM WOBBLE DUE TO THE

CONVECTION HAVING RECENTLY WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A RETURN TO A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OF 280/13 KT

IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN

GOOD AGREEMENT ON LANE CONTINUING MOVE BETWEEN WESTWARD AND

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A

TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON DAY 5 AS THE STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO

THE NORTH STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN

ISLANDS AND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII GRADUALLY

LIFTS OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN