WTPZ44 KNHC 170834 RRA

TCDEP4



HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142018

200 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2018



LANE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES

SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL EYE, BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT YET

APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE LATEST

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ORGANIZED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, BUT

CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN THE OUTER BANDS.  AN AVERAGE OF THE

DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70

KT.



THE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SUGGEST THAT CONTINUED STEADY OR RAPID

STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER,

THERE COULD BE SOME INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR THAT MIGHT INTERRUPT THE

RATE OF STRENGTHENING.  NONETHELESS, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT LANE WILL

BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY THE END

OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS A LITTLE LESS IDEAL

WITH DRIER AIR AND AN INCREASE IN SHEAR LIKELY CAUSING SLOW

WEAKENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE

PREVIOUS ONE, AND IT REMAINS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.



AFTER WOBBLING TO THE NORTH LATE YESTERDAY, LANE HAS RESUMED A MORE

WESTWARD MOTION AT 14 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT

CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THERE

IS SOME NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS WITH THE UKMET ON THE

SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE GFS AND HWRF ON THE NORTHERN

SIDE.  THIS SPREAD APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HOW MUCH INFLUENCE

A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST HAS ON