WTPZ41 KNHC 030232 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162018

800 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2018



SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT NORMAN IS MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH

THIS EVENING.  THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE REMAINS DISTINCT AND A RING

OF COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDS THAT FEATURE.  HOWEVER, THE CLOUD TOPS

HAVE BEEN WARMING A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  A BLEND OF

THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS HOLDING THE

INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 115 KT.



NORMAN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MARGINALLY WARM 27 DEG C SSTS AND

IT WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT

SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION, THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE HURRICANE

MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR MASS AND SHOW A SIGNIFICANT

INCREASE IN SHEAR IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.  ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS SUGGEST

THAT NORMAN SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN, AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE

TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THIS FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT

WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS HCCA AND IVCN.



NORMAN CONTINUES TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, WITH

THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE THE SAME AS BEFORE, 285/17.  THIS

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE NORMAN

REMAINS STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS

NORTH-NORTHEAST.  AFTER THAT TIME, A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND

THEN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ARE PREDICTED AS NORMAN MOVES

NEAR THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS

CAUSED BY A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH.  THE MODELS AGREE ON THIS OVERALL

SCENARIO, BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF WHERE AND WHEN NORMAN

MAKES THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE