WTPZ41 KNHC 290854 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162018

300 AM MDT WED AUG 29 2018



EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A DEARTH OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT,

NORMAN'S INFRARED SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS THE LOOK OF A CYCLONE

READY TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

BANDING CONTINUES TO INCREASE, WITH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY EXPANDING

IN NEARLY ALL QUADRANTS.  NORMAN'S INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50

KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  OCEAN

WATERS OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND LOW SHEAR FOR THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS ARE OFFERING AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR NORMAN TO

RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.  THE VARIOUS RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) INDICES

CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES, AND OVERALL THE NEW INTENSITY

GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST

36 HOURS.  BASED ON THESE NUMBERS, THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST HAS BEEN BUMPED UPWARD, CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE

SUPERENSEMBLE AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS, BUT STILL NOT NEARLY AS

HIGH AS THE HWRF OR HCCA MODELS.  IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING AT ALL

FOR THE FORECAST INTENSITIES TO BE INCREASED FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT

ADVISORY PACKAGES, AND NORMAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER

TODAY.



NORMAN IS MOVING WESTWARD, OR 275/9 KT, TO THE SOUTH OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,

CAUSING NORMAN TO CONTINUE WESTWARD--OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD--AT

A FAIRLY STEADY PACE FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS.  EXCEPT FOR THE GFS,

WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A NORTHERN OUTLIER, THE REMAINDER OF