WTPZ41 KNHC 300236 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162018

800 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2018



NORMAN IS STEADILY STRENGTHENING.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE

THAT THE HURRICANE NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WITH A BANDED

EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN THAT DATA.  THE EYE IS NOT YET APPARENT IN

GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES, BUT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS IMPROVING IN

ORGANIZATION AND THE CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO BECOME COLDER.  A BLEND

OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0000 UTC SUPPORTED AN

INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT, AND SINCE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO

BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED FOR THIS ADVISORY IS

INCREASED TO 75 KT.  NOW THAT NORMAN HAS AN INNER CORE, RAPID

INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE

HURRICANE REMAINS IN NEAR IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.  THE SHIPS

RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES ARE VERY HIGH, AND THE NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE

SHORT TERM.  BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS, AN INCREASE IN SHEAR

AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS SHOULD PROMOTE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND.



SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE FORWARD SPEED OF NORMAN HAS

SLOWED TO 280/7 KT.  ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE

AMPLIFYING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW

DAYS, AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO MOVE WESTWARD OR

WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THAT TIME.  THEREAFTER, A TURN BACK TO THE

WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

PREDICTED AS NORMAN MOVES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE

RIDGE.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND