WTPZ41 KNHC 302037 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162018

200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2018



NORMAN IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE HURRICANE'S CDO IS VERY SYMMETRIC AND HAS A

WELL-DEFINED 20-NMI-WIDE EYE.  THE SURROUNDING RING OF COLD CLOUD

TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY, BUT THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES ARE STILL CATCHING UP TO THE IMPROVED SATELLITE

PRESENTATION AND RANGE FROM 127 KT TO 135 KT.  BASED ON A BLEND OF

THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 130 KT, AND IT APPEARS

THAT NORMAN'S RAPID STRENGTHENING PHASE IS EASING. THERE IS STILL A

POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT

12 HOUR OR SO, HOWEVER, EYEWALL REPLACEMENT PROBABILITIES FROM

UW/CIMSS INDICATE A VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT

BEGINNING WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHICH WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO

SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES AND A SUBTLE INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ARE

EXPECTED TO CAUSE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEED OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING BUT IT DOES NOT

WEAKEN NORMAN AS QUICKLY AS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, AND IT IS IN

BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.



RECENT SATELLITE FIXES INDICATED THAT NORMAN IS MOVING SLIGHTLY

SOUTH OF DUE WEST.  A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS

WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD STEER

NORMAN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT

TIME, THE RIDGE CHANGES ORIENTATION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE