WTPZ42 KNHC 010832 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172018

300 AM MDT SAT SEP 01 2018



RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND GOES-16 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY HAVE

INDICATED THAT THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL

CIRCULATION WITH THE CENTER EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE

ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL RATHER

DISORGANIZED, AND T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT INCREASED, THE MAXIMUM WINDS

REMAIN 30 KT.  BASED ON THE 00Z SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS, IT MAY BE

ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE DEPRESSION BECOMES ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO

START STRENGTHENING.  IN FACT, THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS IN

PARTICULAR SHOW THE CENTER JUMPING AROUND OR RE-FORMING DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING NOT OCCURRING UNTIL

AFTER 48 HOURS.  ONCE THE CYCLONE IS ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE, A

MORE ROBUST INTENSIFICATION PHASE SHOULD OCCUR SINCE IT WILL BE

LOCATED OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE SLOW INITIAL ORGANIZATION PROCESS, THE

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN DECREASED DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS OR

SO AND IS A LITTLE BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  AFTER DAY 3, THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS

CLOSER TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE HCCA MODEL.



THE DEPRESSION STILL APPEARS TO BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR

285/9 KT, BUT THAT MOTION IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE POOR ORGANIZATION.

AS NOTED ABOVE, THE CENTER COULD JUMP AROUND OR RE-FORM DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT OVERALL THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS, SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.