WTPZ43 KNHC 090843 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182018

200 AM PDT SUN SEP 09 2018



SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED.  THE

CYCLONE HAS A LARGE CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF

OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT BANDING FEATURES REMAIN LIMITED TO THE EAST

OF THE CENTER.  A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED

30-35 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  BASED ON THAT DATA AND

THE 2.5/35 KT DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB, THE INITIAL INTENSITY

IS INCREASED TO 35 KT, MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM PAUL.



PAUL WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN SOME MORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A RELATIVELY MOIST

ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY

BECAUSE OF CONTINUED MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE

NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION SHOULD END IN A

FEW DAYS WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SSTS COOLER THAN 26 DEG C AND

INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

IS AGAIN NUDGED DOWNWARD, BUT IT STILL LIES AT THE HIGH END OF THE

MODEL GUIDANCE.



SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT PAUL HAS TURNED SHARPER TO THE

NORTHWEST THAN EXPECTED.  SMOOTHING THROUGH THE FIXES YIELDS AN

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/7.   A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION

IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT TIME, PAUL

SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE

TO ITS NORTH AND THEN SLOW DOWN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD

WHEN IT BECOMES SHALLOW AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE

NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGE IN