WTPZ43 KNHC 092031 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182018

200 PM PDT SUN SEP 09 2018



ASCAT DATA FROM SHORTLY BEFORE 1800 UTC INDICATED THAT PAUL WAS

SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED, WITH SEVERAL 35-40 KT

VECTORS OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  BASED ON THIS DATA, THE

INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT.  IN AN EFFORT TO

MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY, AND SINCE THE ASCAT DATA NEARLY SUPPORTS

45 KT, VERY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24

H, BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS REALISTICALLY EXPECTED.

BEGINNING IN A DAY OR TWO, A COMBINATION OF DRY, STABLE AIR, AND

DECREASING SSTS SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, EVENTUALLY

CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER

THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT IS STILL NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE PAUL COULD WEAKEN

SOONER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.



PAUL HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY BUT IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD, NOW AT

AROUND 9 KT.  ALMOST NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK

FORECAST.  PAUL SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT

DAY OR SO, BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE WEST AS THE WEAKENING

CYCLONE BECOMES INCREASINGLY STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO

THE NORTH.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT

THROUGH ABOUT 72 H, AT WHICH POINT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES MAINLY

RELATED TO HOW FAST THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN.  THE NHC FORECAST

REMAINS CLOSE TO HCCA AND THE OTHER CONSENSUS AIDS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS