WTIO31 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351ZSEP2018// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 86.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 86.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 20.0N 84.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 21.0N 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 201500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 85.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 201020Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 35 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 30 CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 04B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 06 WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 24 DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 191400).// NNNN