WTPZ45 KNHC 270235 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202018

900 PM MDT WED SEP 26 2018



DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF ROSA HAS

BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC, AND PERHAPS AN EYE IS TRYING TO EMERGE IN THE

LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES.  OVERALL, ROSA APPEARS SOMEWHAT STRONGER

THAN THE PAST ADVISORY, SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SLIGHTLY RAISED

TO 75 KT- NEAR THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE AND THE CIMSS ADT.



THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN STEADILY STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST DAY,

AND, WITH CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS IN THE

FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.

A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PERIOD IS POSSIBLE IF THE INNER CORE

BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.  CURIOUSLY, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME

IN LOWER THAN THE LAST CYCLE, DESPITE NO OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTORS

FROM ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. I'D RATHER KEEP THE HIGH FORECAST OF

MY PREDECESSOR UNTIL THE REASONS FOR THIS LOWER PEAK INTENSITY

BECOME CLEAR.  IN ADDITION, THE CORRECTED-CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS

HIGHER THAN THE REST OF THE AIDS, SUPPORTING THE STRONGER FORECAST.

BY DAY 3 WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AS ROSA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS,

AND RAPID WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE

CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS HIGH SHEAR OVER QUITE COOL WATERS.



ROSA HAS TURNED WESTWARD, NOW MOVING AT ABOUT 10 KT.  A MID-LEVEL

HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE

ON THIS GENERAL COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.   AFTER THAT TIME,

THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD DUE TO A SERIES OF TROUGHS APPROACHING THE

WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, CAUSING ROSA TO GRADUALLY TURN