WTPZ45 KNHC 281517 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202018

800 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2018



CORRECTED TYPO IN SECOND PARAGRAPH.



CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE DISTINCT EYE OF ROSA HAVE WARMED

CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS

SHOWED A DISTINCT DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE, AND THIS IS LIKELY THE

REASON FOR THE DEGRADATION OF ROSA'S APPEARANCE.  DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED AS A RESULT, AND THE

INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN THEREFORE DECREASED TO 120 KT.  GIVEN

THE CONTINUED WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS SINCE 1200 UTC, IT IS POSSIBLE

THAT ROSA HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE THAN THIS.



SINCE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ONGOING, ROSA IS NO LONGER

EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.  IN THE SHORT TERM, SOME ADDITIONAL

WEAKENING IS LIKELY, TYPICAL OF MAJOR HURRICANES UNDERGOING EYEWALL

REPLACEMENTS.  IF THIS PROCESS COMPLETES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,

THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR THE HURRICANE TO RE-INTENSIFY

WHILE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE HURRICANE REMAINS OVER WARM SSTS.

HOWEVER, STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT

SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS. BY 96

H, A WEAKER ROSA WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE NORTHERN WEST COAST OF

THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE RESULTING INTERACTION WITH

LAND WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE.  IT IS WORTH

NOTING THAT A FARTHER NORTHWEST TRACK WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN ROSA

WEAKENING FASTER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED, WHILE A FARTHER

SOUTHEAST TRACK COULD ALLOW ROSA TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER

CIRCULATION AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.