WTPZ41 KNHC 072033 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  34

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018



SERGIO HAS MAINTAINED ITS ANNULAR-LIKE STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST

SEVERAL HOURS. THE EYE HAS EXPANDED TO NEARLY 90 N MI ACROSS, AND

THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF CONVECTIVE BANDING IN MULTIPLE MICROWAVE

OVERPASSES SINCE 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM

TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, HOWEVER THE

UW-CIMSS ADT AND SATCON ARE A LITTLE HIGHER, SO THE INITIAL

INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT.



VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK OR INTENSITY

FORECASTS. SERGIO IS STILL FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD

OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN FACT, THE 12 H FORECAST POINT IS

PRACTICALLY ALREADY INSIDE THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE.  BY TUESDAY,

ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WORKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN

SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.

SHOULD CAUSE SERGIO TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. INTERESTINGLY,

ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED WITH THIS

FORECAST CYCLE, THE CONSENSUS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT, SO ONLY

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.



SLOW WEAKENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SERGIO

POSSIBLY MAINTAINS ITS ANNULAR STRUCTURE. BY MID-WEEK, SERGIO WILL

BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS, AND A FASTER RATE OF

WEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND IS NEAR THE IVCN AND HCCA INTENSITY CONSENSUS

AIDS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/2100Z 14.7N 127.5W   85 KT 100 MPH