WTPA41 PHFO 011504 RRA

TCDCP1



HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012018

500 AM HST MON OCT 01 2018



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF WALAKA HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY

OVERNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE WELL

DEFINED EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE RING OF -70 TO -85C CLOUD

TOPS, AND CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS AS

EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, LARGE

DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE PRESENT ON BOTH THE EAST AND

WEST SIDE OF WALAKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST INTENSITY

ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PHFO, SAB, AND JTWC, WHILE

THE UW-CIMSS ADT WAS 5.4 (100 KNOTS). AS OF 01/14Z, RAW DT NUMBERS

ARE AS HIGH AS 7.0 (140 KNOTS), BUT NEED TO BE HELD DOWN

DUE TO INTENSIFICATION CONSTRAINTS. BASED ON THIS DATA ALONG WITH

THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN THE APPEARANCE AND ORGANIZATION, THE

INITIAL INTENSITY OF WALAKA FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS INCREASED TO 110

KNOTS, MAKING IT 5 KNOTS SHORT OF CATEGORY 4 STATUS. THE INITIAL

MOTION WAS SET AT 295/09 KNOTS.



WALAKA IS BEGINNING TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY

AS A DEEP NORTH PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY

OF 30N 170W AND FURTHER ERODES THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS THEN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, WITH

WALAKA CONTINUING ON THIS COURSE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN

INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD THEN MAKE A

TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT