WTPA41 PHFO 020248 RRA

TCDCP1



HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012018

500 PM HST MON OCT 01 2018



RECENT INFRARED IMAGES SHOWED THAT CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE

HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT STILL FORM A

SOLID RING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE -70 TO -76C RANGE. DVORAK

INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 6.5/127KT FROM PHFO AND SAB. UW/CIMSS

ADT DATA INDICATED 7.0/140KT AT 0000 UTC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR

THIS ADVISORY IS 140 KT AS A NOD TO THE ADT VALUE, SINCE THE

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN CONSTRAINED BY FIX RULES. OF

ADDITIONAL INTEREST, MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE NOAA-18 1949 UTC AND

METOP-B AT 2108 UTC SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN OUTER EYEWALL,

WHICH INDICATES HURRICANE WALAKA IS GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL

REPLACEMENT CYCLE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2107 UTC CAUGHT THE EASTERN

SEMICIRCLE OF WALAKA'S CIRCULATION, WHICH RESULTED IN THE EXPANSION

OF THE 34 KT RADII IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.



THE INITIAL MOTION OF WALAKA IS 310/6 KT AS IT ROUNDS THE

SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM NORTH OF WALAKA IS IN THE PROCESS OF ALTERING THE STEERING

CURRENT, CAUSING THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO AND THE

TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED, ESPECIALLY THROUGH 48 HOURS.

WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD UNDER THE

INFLUENCE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE FORECAST

TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE

HCCA CONSENSUS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH 36 HOURS.



WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER WALAKA EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR