WTPA41 PHFO 021518 RRA

TCDCP1



HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012018

500 AM HST TUE OCT 02 2018



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF WALAKA WHICH WAS BEING DEGRADED BY AN

EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OVERNIGHT, HAS JUST BEGUN TO IMPROVE WITH

A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ONCE AGAIN ENCIRCLE THE

WELL DEFINED EYE, WHICH COULD BE A SIGN THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT

CYCLE IS GETTING READY TO COMPLETE. THE LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES

FROM PHFO, SAB, JTWC WERE 6.5 (127 KNOTS) WHILE THE ADT HELD AT 6.6

(130 KNOTS). BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIKELY HOLDING THE INTENSITY OF

WALAKA TOO LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON, HAVE ONLY REDUCED THE INITIAL

INTENSITY SLIGHTLY WITH THIS ADVISORY TO 135 KNOTS. THE INITIAL

MOTION WAS SET AT 350/09 KNOTS.



A DEEP NORTH PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 30N 170W

WILL DRAW WALAKA NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BEFORE

ANOTHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC PICKS

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UP AND SHIFTS IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY

NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE REMAINS FAIRLY

TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS FAIRLY

WELL ALIGNED WITH THE LATEST GFEX, TVCN, HCCA CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.



THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING WALAKA REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL

INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL

REMAIN WITHIN A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,

HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 84 TO

86 FAHRENHEIT. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD LEAD TO SOME