WTPA41 PHFO 030319 RRA

TCDCP1



HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012018

500 PM HST TUE OCT 02 2018



WALAKA'S EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES AND CIMSS-ADT UNANIMOUS AT 6.0. THUS, THE CURRENT

INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DESPITE

THESE RECENT TRENDS, A 0151 UTC SSMI PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL-

DEVELOPED EYEWALL, AND THERE ARE WELL-DEVELOPED OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO

THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE. OUTFLOW IS MUCH MORE

RESTRICTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11, AS WALAKA MOVES GENERALLY

TOWARD A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 31N 170W. WALAKA

IS EXPECTED TO SOON BEGIN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST

AS

IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE

LOW. AS WALAKA BEGINS TO GET TANGLED UP WITH THIS EXTRATROPICAL

FEATURE, THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER WILL DRAMATICALLY SLOW IT'S

FORWARD MOTION IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME AND MAY TAKE A BRIEF

BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, THEN KICK NORTHEAST RAPIDLY

AGAIN AT 96 HOURS AND BEYOND AS THE CIRCULATION BECOMES MORE

SHALLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT

CONSIDERING THE RATHER COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN WALAKA AND THE

EXTRATROPICAL LOW, AND THIS FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.



THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WALAKA WILL BE COMING UNDER

THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR RELATIVELY SOON. THE SHEAR

IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT GREATER THAN 30 KT BY 36 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD