WTPA41 PHFO 030937 RRA

TCDCP1



HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15...CORRECTED

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012018

1100 PM HST TUE OCT 02 2018



WALAKA'S EYE REMAINS SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, A 0528Z SSMS PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW A

WELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A COMPLETE EYEWALL. THE DEGRADATION

OF THE SYSTEM IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY IS LIKELY THE

RESULT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE

LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM JTWC AND

PHFO WERE 6.0/115 KT AND 5.5/102 KT FROM SAB. THE UW-CIMSS ADT

ESTIMATE WAS ALSO 6.0/115 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES, WE WILL

MAINTAIN WALAKA'S INITIAL INTENSITY AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 005/11 KT. WALAKA IS BEING

STEERED TOWARDS A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 31N

170W. WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO SOON BEGIN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE

NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE OUTER CIRCULATION ALONG

THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEEP LOW. ONCE WALAKA

GETS CLOSER TO THIS EXTRATROPICAL FEATURE, THE TRACK GUIDANCE

INDICATES ITS FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW IN THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME.

IT MAY MAKE A BRIEF BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, THEN TRACK

RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS AS THE CIRCULATION

BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY GOOD

AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THE RATHER COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN WALAKA

AND THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THIS LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE

TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.



AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR WALAKA BECOMES INCREASINGLY HOSTILE