WTPA41 PHFO 031500 RRA

TCDCP1



HURRICANE WALAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012018

500 AM HST WED OCT 03 2018



WALAKA'S EYE BECAME MUCH MORE DISTINCT OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, THE

CLOUD TOPS COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EYEWALL. NOTE THAT IN THE

LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW

SOME SIGNS OF BECOMING MORE NARROW. THIS MAY BE DUE TO INCREASING

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS WELL INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH

LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF WALAKA. PRIOR TO THIS, SOME OF THE

SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES SHOWED INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED EARLY THIS

MORNING. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATES WERE 6.5/127 KT FROM JTWC, 6.0/115 KT FROM PHFO, AND

5.5/102 KT FROM SAB. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS 7.0/140

KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES, WE HAVE INCREASED WALAKA'S

INITIAL INTENSITY TO 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



WALAKA HAS BEEN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT,

AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 015/15 KT. THE PRIMARY

STEERING MECHANISM IS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A VERTICALLY-STACKED

LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 32N 170W. THEREFORE, WALAKA IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.

ONCE THE HURRICANE GETS CLOSER TO THIS EXTRATROPICAL FEATURE, THE

TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES ITS FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW DURING THE 24

TO 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW

A BRIEF BEND IN THE TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, FOLLOWED BY

RAPID ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 48 AND 96

HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT