WTIO31 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 62.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 62.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 13.0N 61.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 13.4N 59.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 13.8N 59.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 14.2N 58.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 14.7N 57.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 15.2N 55.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.5N 52.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 62.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING BANDING WRAPPING INTO DEEPENING PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN INFLOW NOTCH IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KTS, IN THE MIDDLE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 (30 KTS) TO T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM DEMS, PGTW, AND KNES. ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 DEGREES C) ARE BALANCING MODERATE (15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ENABLING DEVELOPMENT. TC 05A IS TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS NORTH. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING WEST-TO-EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR IS CREATING A BREAK IN THE STR, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC 05A TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GALWEM, UKMET, AND ECMWF MODELS ARE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS, WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF ECMWF TRACKING 05A WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ADEN AND MAINTAINING IT OVER WATER FAR LONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. NAVGEM AND GFS PREDICT A MORE DRAMATIC BREAK IN THE STR, A TIGHTER TURN TOWARDS A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, AND LANDFALL IN OMAN AFTER TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ECMWF SOLUTION TO THE SOUTH. TC 05A IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KTS BY TAU 96. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER TAU 48 AND SSTS WILL COOL TO 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS CLOSER TO THE ARABIAN PENINSULA, WHICH WILL HINDER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE 315 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120, THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z. 2. THIS SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 070830).// NNNN