WTIO31 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 60.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 60.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 13.3N 59.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 13.6N 59.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 14.0N 58.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 14.3N 57.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 14.2N 55.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 13.9N 53.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 13.6N 50.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 60.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN BANDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH INTO PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL 082105Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY DEPICTS A WARM BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE NOTCH FEATURE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS SUPPORTED BY PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0-T3.5 (45-55 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH 15-20 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DRY AIR ENTRAINING FROM THE SOUTH. TC 05A IS BEING STEERED BY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH, ALTHOUGH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE STEERING. TC 05A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, THEN SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS A BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS, WITH THE SPLIT BEING EVIDENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST BUT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE SOLUTION PRESENTED BY ECMWF, COAMPS-GFS, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH MAINTAINS THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST AND STEER THE CYCLONE ONTO A WESTERLY TRACK AFTER TAU 48. THE OTHER MODELS (GALWEM, GFS, UKMET, NAVGEM) BUILD THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, STEERING TC 05A NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BORDER BETWEEN OMAN AND YEMEN. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WAS CHOSEN BASED, IN PART, ON THE FACT THAT EVERY MEMBER IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE DEPICTED A TRACK TOWARDS THE GULF OF ADEN. TC 05A IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 70 KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE COAMPS-GFS SOLUTION WHICH PREDICTS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.// NNNN