WTIO31 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 59.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 14.4N 59.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 14.6N 58.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 14.8N 58.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 14.9N 57.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.1N 55.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.0N 52.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.9N 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 59.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH THE STRONGEST RAIN BANDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 091737Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH HAS A WARM BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE REGION JUST EAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS JUST BELOW DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) BUT IS CONSISTENT WITH A 091735Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 59 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28- 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR), ONE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE OTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN IT HAS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, TC 05A WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS. BY TAU 120, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF MUKALLA, YEMEN. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS SSTS COOL AND DRY AIR FROM YEMEN GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE DISTANCE SEPARATING THE BIFURCATED MODEL SOLUTIONS HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BUT THE RELATIVE POSITION OF THE DIFFERENT MODELS HAS NOT CHANGED WITH ECMWF AND COAMPS-GFS STILL SOUTH OF THE OTHER MODELS. SPREAD IS STILL LARGE WITH 385 NM BETWEEN THE SOUTHERNMOST (COAMPS-GFS) AND NORTHERNMOST (GALWEM) MEMBERS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION. BASED ON THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKS, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN