WTIO31 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 14.7N 58.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 14.7N 57.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.8N 56.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 14.9N 55.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.0N 52.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.3N 49.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.2N 48.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE, BUT DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KTS) AND IS SLIGHTLY UNDER A 101715Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 81 KTS AND THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, BALANCED BY DRY AIR FROM THE ARABIAN AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM AND LEADING TO THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO REFLECTIONS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) - ONE TO THE NW AND ONE TO THE ENE, LEADING TO SLOW DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. AFTER TAU 36, AN EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL BUILD IN TO THE NORTH, CAUSING TC 05A TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST. BY TAU 84, TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN YEMEN, ENE OF MUKALLA. AFTER TAU 96, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE INTENSITY AT 75 KTS THROUGH TAU 12. TC 05A WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 65 KTS BY TAU 36 AND HOLD THAT INTENSITY UNTIL AFTER TAU 72. AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE NORTH, THE CURRENTLY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL DIMINISH AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AFTER TAU 72. BY TAU 120, TC 05A WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO 25 KTS OVER THE DRY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF YEMEN. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, OVER 175 NM BY TAU 96, JUST AFTER LANDFALL. THE ECMWF, COAMPS-TC (GFS) AND COAMPS- TC (NAVGEM), AND HWRF TRACKS ARE SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO PREDICTING A STRONGER STR. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TERM MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN