WTIO31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 14.6N 57.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 14.6N 57.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 14.7N 56.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.7N 55.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.9N 51.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.8N 49.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.3N 48.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT STILL MAINTAINS A RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) AND IS SLIGHTLY UNDER A 102109Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 86 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, BALANCED BY DRY AIR FROM THE ARABIAN AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM AND SLOW MOTION IN AN AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29C) BUT LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC), LEADING TO THE DISSOLVING ORGANIZATION. THE CYCLONE IS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO REFLECTIONS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) - ONE TO THE NW AND ONE TO THE ENE, LEADING TO SLOW DRIFTING WESTWARD MOVEMENT. AFTER TAU 30, AN EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL BUILD IN TO THE NORTH, CAUSING TC 05A TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST. BY TAU 84, TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN YEMEN, ENE OF MUKALLA. AFTER TAU 96, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE INITIAL SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW OHC AND DRY AIR WILL COMPETE WITH THE FAVORABLE LOW VWS AND GOOD OUTFLOW TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 60 KTS BY TAU 24. TC 05A WILL MAINTAIN 60 KTS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48 AS IT ACCELERATES AND ONLY NEEDS THE SUPERFICIAL WARM MIXED LAYER OF THE OCEAN TO FUEL CONVECTION, AND AS THE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS PERSISTS. IN LATER TAUS, AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE NORTH, THE CURRENTLY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL DIMINISH AND THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAND, LEADING TO ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AFTER TAU 72. BY TAU 120, TC 05A WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO 20 KTS OVER THE DRY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF YEMEN. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, OVER 200 NM BY TAU 96, JUST AFTER LANDFALL. THE ECMWF, COAMPS-TC (GFS) AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM), AND HWRF TRACKS ARE SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO PREDICTING A STRONGER STR. THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS REMAINED MOSTLY CONSISTENT IN ITS POSITION BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT RUNS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TERM MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM (WTIO32 PGTW).// NNNN