WTIO31 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 14.5N 57.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.6N 57.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 14.7N 56.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 14.8N 54.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.2N 51.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 16.5N 48.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.3N 48.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 05A IS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM BUT HAS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON AN 110548Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, AN 110547Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS, AND AN ADT CI OF T4.1 (67 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 05A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 05A IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND ELONGATE AND ALLOW TC 05A TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. AS TC 05A TRACKS WESTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL AT TAU 72 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 05A WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM THE INITIAL POSITION TO TAU 24 WITH A SPREAD OF 77 NM WITH AFUM INDICATING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND NVGM INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. FROM TAU 24 TO 72 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 05A WILL TRACK WESTWARD. AFTER TAU 72 MODELS AGREE THAT TC 05A WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. HOWEVER, THERE IS A MODEL SPREAD OF 290 NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.// NNNN