WTIO31 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 57.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.6N 57.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 14.6N 56.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 14.7N 54.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.8N 53.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.6N 50.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.1N 48.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 57.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 05A REMAINS ORGANIZED WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, AND THERE IS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE EIR IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN 111331Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, AND IS BELOW THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 05A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALONG WITH A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS UNFAVORABLE, AND TC 05A IS MOVING SLOWLY, DRAWING MARGINAL ENERGY FROM THE OCEAN WHERE IT HAS ALREADY CAUSED COLD WATER TO UPWELL FROM BELOW THE MIXED LAYER. ADDITIONALLY, TC 05A IS ENTRAINING DRY AIR FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA, WHICH IS ALSO LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. TC 05A IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND EXTEND, ALLOWING TC 05A TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 24. TC 05A WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN INITIAL TAUS THEN INTENSITY WILL HOLD CONSTANT AT 60 KTS THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE QUICKLY AND CAN USE THE SUPERFICIAL SURFACE MIXED LAYER OF WARM SSTS FOR FUEL. THE WARM SSTS, LOW VWS, AND MODERATE OUTFLOW WILL COMPETE WITH DRY AIR TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW, THE DRY AIR, AND LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FURTHER. TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72 WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 45 KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 05A WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS REMAINED IN CONSISTENT LOCATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. FROM TAU 24 TO 72, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 05A WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH A 190NM SPREAD AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL DUE TO THE COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) MODEL DIVERGING UNREALISTICALLY TO THE SOUTH. PREVIOUS OUTLIERS ECMWF AND NAVGEM HAVE CONVERGED TOWARDS THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER TAU 72, MODELS AGREE THAT TC 05A WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, BUT VARY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF RECURVATURE. THERE IS A MODEL SPREAD OF 432 NM BY TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) FOR THE FINAL WARNING (WTIO32 PGTW) ON THAT SYSTEM.// NNNN