WTIO31 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 14.7N 56.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.7N 55.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.7N 54.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.8N 52.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.7N 49.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.6N 48.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 57.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SYSTEM WHICH HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH A BROAD LLCC, WHICH, WHILE STILL WELL DEFINED, IS LACKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH LIMITED SHALLOW CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BROAD AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE LLCC. AN 112136Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ASSISTED IN PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER, AND DEPICTED A WELL DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION DEFINING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE AND IS NOW ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, BASED OFF THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (50 KNOTS), A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KNOTS AND AN AUTOMATED DVORAK OF T3.3 (50 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 05A IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA WITH LOW VWS (5-10 KNOTS), IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS), STRONG EQUATORWARD AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN MARGINAL AT 27 TO 28 DEG C, BUT OHC IS LOW. AS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR SOME TIME OVER THIS AREA IT HAS DRAWN COOLER WATERS TO THE SURFACE AND CHOKED OFF ITS ENERGY SUPPLY, OFFSETTING THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND LEADING TO THE RAPID WEAKENING. TC 05A IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING PATTER BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL START TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SAUDI ARABIA WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE YEMENI COAST EAST OF MUKALLA AROUND TAU 60 AND AFTER LANDFALL TRACK INLAND WHILE MAKING A SLOW TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. TC 05A IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE UPWELLED COOLER WATERS. A SHORT PERIOD OF WEAK INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 24 AND LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE COOL SST POOL AND INTO WARMER WATERS ALONG THE COASTLINE, WHILE STILL EXPERIENCING LOW VWS AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH A SPREAD OF ONLY 90NM AT TAU 48, WITH A TIGHT GROUPING NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) FOR THE FINAL WARNING (WTIO32 PGTW) ON THAT SYSTEM.// NNNN