WTIO31 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.5N 56.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.4N 54.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.6N 52.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.9N 50.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.2N 48.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.3N 48.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 56.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 05A HAS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH HAS BECOME PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 121118Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05A IS STILL EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS WEAK POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 05A REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD, ELONGATE, AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. TC 05A WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. AS TC 05A TRACKS WESTWARD IT WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MINOR INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL WITH TC 05A RE-INTENSIFYING TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL TC 05A WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. ONCE INLAND, TC 05A WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND REACH AND INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE A NORTHWESTWARD TURN. DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// NNNN